Why Jordan Spieth Is Going to Win The Open

Here comes that Jordan Spieth guy… again! Spieth birdied four of his final six holes and then beat Tom Gillis in a playoff to win the John Deere Classic Sunday. It’s the same venue where Spieth earned his first career PGA Tour victory as a 19-year-old in 2013. That year he needed three playoff holes. Yesterday, he needed just two.

Spieth
No one on Tour has more Top 10 finishes this season than Spieth (11).

Spieth now has four Tour wins this season, and in the 18 events he’s played, he has 14 Top 25s. No one has more Top 10 finishes than Spieth (11). He’s already halfway to the calendar Grand Slam heading into St Andrews, and I think Spieth is going to win himself a claret jug in his first competitive appearance at The Old Course. Here’s why:

Good Sign For the Open?
While the sponsor no doubt loves Spieth’s loyalty to the event, recent history says his best strategy for winning the year’s 3rd major would have been to skip the John Deere in favor of either the Scottish Open or a week off. Spieth says he’s been preparing for St Andrews by playing the course on a simulator, but it’s just not the same thing.

Each of the past five Open Champions played the Scottish Open the week before his win. It’s been over a decade since the winner of The Open played the John Deere Classic the week before, a stretch dating back to Todd Hamilton in 2004.

Since 1990, Hamilton and Ian Baker-Finch in 1991 are the only two men to play a PGA Tour event the week before raising the Claret Jug. Since the modern era of majors began in 1934, Lee Trevino in 1971 was the only player to win a Tour event the week before winning The Open. After winning the Deere in 2013, Spieth opened with a 69 at Muirfield before fading with scores of 74-76-75.

Spieth joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least five Tour events before turning 22.
Spieth joins Tiger Woods as the only players to win at least five Tour events before turning 22.

Texas-Sized Hot Streak
With his 4th Tour win of the season, which leads all players, Spieth can become only the 12th player to win a Tour event prior to winning a major. Rory McIlroy did it prior to last year’s PGA Championship. Spieth joins Tiger Woods as the only players in the past 75 years to win at least five PGA Tour events before turning 22. Woods won six times prior to his 22nd birthday and was the last man to win the year’s first two majors back in 2002.

Spieth is the first golfer to win four times before The Open since Woods did it in 2000. Earlier this year, Spieth was asked about the remarkable “run” he was on. Spieth said that he didn’t consider it a “run” and added that he expected to play this way all the time. That’s a scary thought.

Where Was the Competition?
Although there’s no denying Spieth’s hot streak heading into next week’s major, this win might not stack-up compared to the others. At No. 2, Spieth was the only Top 25 player in the world who played in the John Deere. Eighteen of the world’s Top 25 elected to take the week off, while the other six played the Scottish Open.

With his one-shot victory over Matt Kuchar in the Scottish Open, Fowler appears to be rounding back into form.
With his one-shot victory over Matt Kuchar in the Scottish Open, Fowler appears to be rounding back into form.

You can say it was a watered-down field at the John Deere if you want, but that’s not Spieth’s fault. Guys are still trying to get into this week’s Open Championship, and Spieth still shot 20-under par to get the victory. That’s deep. It’s never a bad thing to see the ball go into the hole heading into a major championship.

It also bodes well for Spieth that his main rival, Rickie Fowler, is coming off a win at the Scottish Open. After a disastrous showing at the U.S. Open, Fowler birdied three of his last four holes to overtake fellow American Matt Kuchar. It looks like Fowler is back in the mix.

Portions of this post courtesy of ESPN.com.

 

 

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