Does the golf season start when the PGA Tour schedule says so, or does it begin when everyone really starts paying attention? I would argue it’s the latter. Welcome to Masters Week 2016! When the 80th playing of the tournament gets underway Thursday morning, there will be a handful of guys who can win it.
It feels the same way just about every year. Sure, anyone can win it, but if you were a betting person, you’d probably only want to put your money on a smattering of guys. Some may don the green jacket for the very first time, while others may be putting it on for the 2nd or, if they’re lucky, even a 3rd time.
Jordan Spieth was the pick last year, a relatively easy pick to make when you consider Spieth had made all eight cuts to start his year, had six Top 10s (1st on the Tour), and seven Top 25s. In his last three starts leading up to Augusta, Spieth had one win and two runner-up finishes. Like I said, picking Spieth to win last year was not a hard pick to make, and he could certainly repeat again this year.
Flash forward 12 months, and here we go again. Only this year, Jason Day is pick, and once again, it’s not a difficult call to make. The world No. 1 has won back-to-back Tour events, and six of his last 13 starts including the game’s last major, the PGA Championship in August. Day’s also 3rd in Strokes Gained: Putting at .970, and we all know you have to putt well to win at Augusta. Day is the betting line favorite, but it’s been 14 years since the No. 1 player in the world won the Masters (Tiger Woods, 2002).
If Day doesn’t win, there are several other guys who could swoop in and snatch the green blazer for themselves. Rickie Fowler has seven Top 10s in his last eight stroke play events (his five Top 10s in nine events played this year is tied for 2nd on Tour), is 3rd in Scoring Average at 69.56, 2nd in Greens in Regulation Percentage at 73.70, and 3rd in Strokes Gained: Total at 2.23.
By winning The Players in May, Fowler showed he can win a major tournament, but the Masters would be a big breakthrough. Fowler let one get away in Scottsdale earlier this year and remains in pursuit of his first career major victory.
Adam Scott’s not a bad choice either. The Australian is 1st in FedEx Cup Point and ranked 7th in the world, but more importantly, Scott has two impressive wins to go along with two seconds in eight events and has made all eight cuts.
At 2.62, he’s the Tour leader in Strokes Gained: Total, 2nd in Scoring Average at 69.23, and 2nd in Strokes Gained: Tee-to-Green at 2.23. As someone who’s done it before, Scott could do it again.
My darkhorse pick is Phil Mickelson. At age 45, Mickelson has the Tour’s lowest Scoring Average at 69.17 and is 2nd in Strokes Gained: Total at 2.24. The numbers never lie, and if you believe the statistics, Mickelson is a shoe-in. His total value of 54 was by far the best when tallying this season’s stats rankings for every player in the field in driving distance, strokes gained: putting and scrambling. Mickelson ranked 42nd, sixth and sixth, respectively, in the three categories (42+6+6=54). This is golf, so the lowest score wins:
Winning Formula (Driving Distance + Strokes Gained: Putting + Scrambling)
1. Phil Mickelson 42+6+6=54
2. Jason Day 20+3+69=92
4. Rickie Fowler 35+27+39=101
7. Jordan Spieth 62+17+47=126
8. Adam Scott 11+42+77=130
9. Rory McIlroy 6+94+33=133
10. Justin Rose 17+87+37=141
Henrik Stenson (3rd in Strokes Gained: Total at 1.99), Rory McIlroy (5th in Scoring Average at 69.96), and Dustin Johnson could all win it too, but all three feel one pimento short of a pimento cheese sandwich (an Augusta National staple) heading into the week.
My faith in Johnson is especially waning after watching him gag away what feels like major after major lately. D.J. has five Top 10s in eight starts, but I simply don’t trust him to close it out when the pressure intensifies.